Which politicians do voters blame for the down economy? - BYU News Skip to main content
Intellect

Which politicians do voters blame for the down economy?

  • BYU political scientist Adam Brown studied governors' races that took place during economic downturns
  • Brown found that voters are less objective (and more partisan) when their governor and the president are from opposite political parties
  • That means six Republican incumbents running this fall actually caught a break when John McCain lost the '08 presidential race

A down economy usually spells trouble for incumbents, but a new Brigham Young University study shows that six Republicans up for re-election this year caught a break when John McCain lost the last presidential election.

The analysis found that some voters are less objective (and more forgiving) in evaluating their governor’s economic performance if the White House is controlled by the opposing political party.

“When there is an easy chance for people to pass the blame onto a party they don’t like, they’ll take it,” said Adam Brown, an assistant professor of political science at BYU.

The study, which appears in the current issue of The Journal of Politics, found that whenever the president and the governor belong to opposing parties, voters will overestimate the policy success of the level of government their preferred party controls. This means that members of the governor’s party will paint a rosier picture of their state’s economy when the White House is controlled by a member of an opposing party.

Take a current political situation as an example: Since President Obama is a Democrat and Utah Gov. Gary Herbert is a Republican, Utah Republicans are two to three times more likely to blame the poor economy on the president than if McCain were president. They’re also likely to say Utah’s economy is outperforming that of the nation—by more than the data may show. By contrast, Utah Democrats are likely to do exactly the opposite, blaming Gov. Herbert instead of President Obama.

Brown used the economy, measured by unemployment rates, as an example of an unclear policy outcome because it’s difficult or even impossible for most voters to determine which level of government affects it the most.

“The economy is the haziest, but it also drives approval and elections way more than anything else,” Brown said.

Interestingly, Brown found the effect of unemployment on gubernatorial approval to be three to four times stronger among members of the president's party than among members of the governor's party. That is, members of the governor's party are more willing to ignore poor economic performance when evaluating the governor than members of the president's party.

Political scientists have long debated if people are capable of being objective when evaluating candidates, or if they simply toe party lines when they get to the polls. Brown’s findings imply that voters are more likely to be objective when evaluating areas where responsibilities are clearer, or when the president and the governor are of the same party.

“People can be objective as long as there’s not a partisan reason not to be objective,” Brown said.

For the study, Brown looked at previous research in years in which the economy was down, giving him the chance to see how people assign blame and estimate economic performance.

As for why voters rely on partisan cues when assigning blame for policy outcomes, Brown has one hypothesis.

“We just like to protect what we believe,” Brown said.

Writer: Amanda Verzello

voting.jpg
Photo by Daniel Sofer / hermosawave.net

Read More From

Related Articles

data-content-type="article"

BYU landscaping students dig their way to 10th national championship

April 03, 2025
BYU’s landscaping team is the best in the field, literally. While most national championships are won on the court or the gridiron, this one was claimed with pruned shrubs, expertly placed pavers, and top-tier irrigation systems.
overrideBackgroundColorOrImage= overrideTextColor= overrideTextAlignment= overrideCardHideSection=false overrideCardHideByline=false overrideCardHideDescription=false overridebuttonBgColor= overrideButtonText= overrideTextAlignment=
data-content-type="article"

Forum: Religion’s surprising impact on academic success

March 25, 2025
“I know that your faith isn’t something you practice only on Sundays — it influences your daily decisions, your work ethic and your vision for the future,” expressed Ilana M. Horwitz in her forum address at Brigham Young University.
overrideBackgroundColorOrImage= overrideTextColor= overrideTextAlignment= overrideCardHideSection=false overrideCardHideByline=false overrideCardHideDescription=false overridebuttonBgColor= overrideButtonText= overrideTextAlignment=
data-content-type="article"

BYU professor and former Utah Poet Laureate recognizes the sacred in everyday life

March 24, 2025
A Q&A with BYU professor of English Lance Larsen, who has been writing poetry for four decades. His poems are regularly published in leading literary journals, and he has received prestigious awards, including the Pushcart Prize and a grant from the National Endowment for the Arts. From 2012-17 he served as Utah Poet Laureate, advocating for the arts throughout the state. He recently published his sixth book of poetry — "Making a Kingdom of It."
overrideBackgroundColorOrImage= overrideTextColor= overrideTextAlignment= overrideCardHideSection=false overrideCardHideByline=false overrideCardHideDescription=false overridebuttonBgColor= overrideButtonText= overrideTextAlignment=
overrideBackgroundColorOrImage= overrideTextColor= overrideTextAlignment= overrideCardHideSection=false overrideCardHideByline=false overrideCardHideDescription=false overridebuttonBgColor= overrideButtonText=