Will Melville was sweating.
It was the middle of July, but he hardly noticed the heat. Melville was glued to his TV screen, watching the Texas Rangers trot onto the field for a 2023 MLB regular season match up against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
This wasn’t just another game. It was the first game in which the Rangers were introducing an updated outfield defensive positioning strategy, largely based on Melville’s research as a PhD student at BYU. Under the mentorship of computer science professors David Grimsman and Chris Archibald, Melville had spent months in the bullpen of math, developing sophisticated formulas and equations to optimize the team’s outfield positions and prevent more runs from opposing teams.
“It was nerve-racking, but exciting,” he said.
Adding to the tension, the Rangers were enjoying a six-game winning streak and had their sights set on the World Series. Ask any coach and they’ll tell you that making significant adjustments to their defensive strategy mid-season isn’t something championship-level teams often do.
But Melville’s data was too good to ignore. The equations pinpointed opportunities for the team, suggesting slight adjustments that would position the outfielders to make crucial plays. He’d accounted for everything from the ball’s launch speed and angle to every individual major league hitter’s tendencies. The equations, grounded in Bayesian statistics, would generate positioning recommendations for the Rangers coaching staff on a game-to-game basis.
And while defensive positioning isn’t new to baseball, Melville’s approach stands out because it incorporates game theory, a mathematical framework for decision-making. “As we adjust the fielders, the batter can see the changes and might try to hit where the defense isn’t,” he explained. “While hitting the ball is incredibly challenging and few hitters can truly adapt, we identified a select group who could. We developed an equilibrium positioning strategy, which means there is no batting strategy that an adaptable hitter can switch to that increases the expected number of hits.”
By his analysis, these changes could prevent 22.5 more runs compared to the MLB average – a calculated risk that was well worth taking, especially as the pennant race heated up.
The gamble paid off. The Rangers finished the year tied for first in the AL West division and went on to clinch the World Series in dominant fashion, beating the Arizona Diamondbacks four games to one. Statistically, they finished seventh in the MLB for DRS (defensive runs saved), and committed only 57 errors all season, a significant improvement from 96 the prior year.
Melville, who had been working remotely for the team while completing his PhD in Provo, joined the club for the World Series games in Arlington.
“It was still stressful, but it was also an amazing experience to be with the whole organization and to all be working together toward the common goal,” says Melville. “And amazing to watch some of the best players in the world making plays all over the field.”
When the Rangers shut out the Diamondbacks in game five, Melville finally breathed a sigh of relief. He’s relishing the opportunity to be a small part of a pennant-winning franchise. A self-described baseball enthusiast, his World Series ring now adorns his desk in his home in Provo as he continues working for the Rangers.
He credits dedicated professors and mentors at BYU for recognizing his talents and steering him toward a profession that wasn’t on his radar.
“During my freshman year one of my professors mentioned working in baseball and statistics would be an option for me and until that point I didn’t even know that type of career path existed.”
As a junior, Melville worked in BYU’s IDeA Lab and got his first chance to conduct baseball research. “This experience helped me set myself apart when I started applying to jobs in baseball,” he said.
After finishing his dissertation, Melville plans to return to Texas and continue swinging for the fences in his role with the Rangers’ front office.
“BYU taught me to be humble and serve others. And I see those traits in my colleagues with the Rangers. Everyone is hardworking and serving each other,” he says. “The lessons I’ve learned at BYU have helped me fit in with the Rangers culture of being a good teammate and competing passionately.”
